programs

TN Water Watch

Project Overview

This project currently provides modelled predictions of waterborne harmful microbial densities at river access points around Middle TN, with plans to expand to include other sites and rivers in the region. Conventional water quality sampling can only provide readings from the past couple of days, which is inadequate to forecast human health risk associated with recreational usage. Real-time data are retrieved from US Geological Survey and local weather stations to make predictions based on a model built from past E. coli samples and environmental conditions, and updated on an hourly basis. It is important to note that predictions are inherently uncertain and cannot guarantee risk or safety, and it is still possible to be negatively impacted even when the predictions indicate a safe environment, or remain healthy even if the predictions indicate that caution should be taken.

Model Summary

A predictive E. coli model was created by correlating levels of E. coli with real-time environmental factors (weather, river flow, precipitation, etc.) resulting in a simple predictive equation that forecasts the levels of E. coli for the day (see below).

Refresh Rate?

The predictive model refreshes and reevaluates the public health recommendations each hour - check map for time and date of most recent update.

Graphical representation of the predictive E. coli model.

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